2009年5月26日火曜日

Japan: an economy in trouble

Japan: an economy in trouble(経済危機の日本)
The future could be dominated by the U.S. and Europe with the Japanese economy in decline.

Japan, the world's second largest economy, by the end of this year will have experienced a decline in its national output of 10 per cent from the peak in 2008.
Figures announced on Wednesday show that in the first three months of this year output fell by 4 per cent. This is the fastest rate of decline since the war; overall it is the biggest decline of any major economy since the U.S. economy contracted by a quarter during the Great Depression.
Japan's travails closely impact on us. It is a major locomotive of the world economy; its problems are everyone's.
Japan's output has now fallen so far that it has lost all the gains it made since 1992. Brutally, it has lost two decades. You have to shake your head at the horror of it - another sobering example of the dark times in which we are living.
Economists comfort themselves that the wost is behind. A lot of Japan's recent problems arose from a cataclysmic 26 per cent decline in its exports over the quarter as retailers and distributors around the credit-crunch suffering globe stopped ordering, and met what demand there was from stocks.
Japan, uniquely dependant on industrial export for its prosperity, was hit very hard. But now there are sings orders are picking up again as the "destocking" stops. Exports are steadying. On top there is a colossal $153bn stimulus package, focusing on stimulating demand for green products.
The big car firms report a surge of orders. Even the IMF believes the Japanese economy will decline less rapidly as the year wears on. The Japanese stock market, expecting the news, was hardly affected. Perhaps the crisis is yesterday's story. Wrong. The explainations for Japan's problems are unlikely to evaporate soon.
The first is that its economy was crippled during the 1990s and the first part of the 2000s by a dawn-out credit crunch. Banks had lent too much and were crippled by losses as the property market collapsed. With bank and corporate balance sheet badly hit, the economy got stuck in low investiment, low growth, low confidence doldrums. It is an awesome warning of what may happen to Britain, similarly sticken.
Matters improved over the last few years, thanks to Japan's powerful industrial exporters and the pick-up in demand from Asia and the U.S. But crisis-hit America is no longer a big buyer of Japanese and Asian exports.

Enormous Challenge

As treasury secretary Tim Geithner has said, over-indebted America is unlikely to become a big consumer again any time soon. Nor can Europe,beset by unemployment,fill the gap. Which presents Asia and Japan with an enormous challenge.
Japan has been the economy Asia has copied - high saving, high inbestment and high exports - along with a government which closely directs economic avtivity. This is the Asian model. But who is now going to buy all those TVs, cars, cameras and videocameras?
The only answer is the Asians themselves.
Which means they will have to save less and spend more - a diagnosis easier to make than to execute. Asians save because they don't have confidence in their governments, the tax base on which welfare is financed or on the stability of property rights. There are even fears about the region's political stability. So governments have to spend to compensate, which is what Japan's is doing on an epic scale. But this can only be a shortterm solution.
Over the next five years Japan and Asia face the economic fight of their lives,with protracted stagnation and social unrest very real prospects. The solution is an Asia Enlightenment, a more transparent, consumer-oriented capitalism. The biggest worry of all is that so few in Asia recognise the problem.
Unless it changes, the next 20 years will be even more dominated by the U.S. and Europe than last. (THE HINDU Friday, MAY, 22, 2009.)

今日の一言
日本の経済危機と政治危機はかなり致命的な段階にきています。それは、海外から見た方が明瞭に見えるのでしょう。最中の日本人、特に若者は見えているでしょうか?この経済危機・政治危機が。日本人が、アメリカ依存ではなく、アジアの中で新しい経済体系を作り出す為には、若者がもっと政治や経済に関心の目を高めて、新しい思考と力で日本を立て直していかないと・・・!

2009年5月6日水曜日

Falling wage syndrome(給料削減症候群)

Falling wage syndrome(給料削減症候群)
Wage are falling all across America.
Some of the wage cuts, like the givebacks by Chrysler workers, are the price of federal aid. Others, like the tentative agreement on a salary cut here at The Times, are the result of discussions between the employers and their union employees. Still others reflect the brute fact of a weak labour market: Workers don't dare protest when their wages are cut, because they don't think they can find other jobs.
Whatever the specifics, however, falling wage are a symptom of a sick economy. And they're a symptom that can make the economy even sicker.
First things first: anecdotes about falling wage are proliferating, but how broad is the phenomenon? The answer is, very.
It's true that many workers are still getting pay increases. But there are enough pay cuts out there that, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, the average cost of employing workers in the private sector rose only two-tenths of a per cent in the first quarter of this year -the lowest increase on record. Since the job market is still getting worse, it wouldn't be at all surprising if overall wages start falling later this year.
But why is that a bad thing? After all, many workers are accepting pay cuts in order to save jobs. What's wrong with that?
The answer lies in one of those paradoxes that plague our economy right now. We're suffering from the paradox of thrift: Saving is a virtue, but when everyone tries to sharply increase saving at the same time, the effect is a depressed economy. We're suffering from the paradox of deleveraging: reducing debt and cleaning up balance sheets is good, but when everyone tries to sell off assets and pay down debt at the same time, the result is a financial crisis.
And soon we may be facing the paradox of wages: workers at any one company can help save their jobs by accepting lower wages, but when employers across the economy cut wages at the same time, the results is higher unemployment.
Here's how the paradox works. Suppose that at the XYZ Corp, accepts a pay cut. That lets XYZ management cut prices, making its products more competitive. Sales rise, and more workers can keep their jobs. So you might think that wage cut raise employment - which they do at the level of the individual employer.
But If everyone takes a pay cut, nobody gains a competitive advantage. So there's no benefit to the economy from the lower wages. Meanwhile, the fall in wages can worsen the economy's problems on other fronts.
In particular, falling wages, and hence falling incomes, worsen the problem of excessive debt: Your monthly mortgage payments don't go down with your paycheck. America came into this crisis with household debt as a percentage of income at its highest level since the 1930s.
Families are trying to work that debt down by saving more than they have in a decade - but as wages fall, they're changing a moving target. And the rising burden of debt will put downward pressure on consumer spending, keeping the economy depressed.
Things get even worse if businesses and consumers expect wages to fall further in the future. John Maynard Keynes put it clearly, more than 70 years ago; "The effect of an expectation that wages are going to sag by, say, 2 per cent in the coming year will be roughly equivalent to the effect of a rise of 2 per cent in the amount of interest payable for the same period." And a rise in the effective interest rate is the last thing this economy needs.
Concern about falling wages isn't just theory. Japan - where private-sector wages fell an average of more than 1 per cent a year from 1997 to 2003 - is an object lesson in how wage deflation can contribute to economic stagnation.
So what should we conclude from the growing evidence of sagging wages in America? Mainly that stabilizing the economy isn't enough: we need a real recovery.
There has been a lot of talk lately about green shoots and all that, and there are indeed indications that the economic plunge that began last fall may be levelling off. The National Bureau of Economic Research might even declare the recession over lately this year.
But the unemployment rate is almost certainly still rising. And all signs point to a terrible job market for many months if not years ton come - which is a recipe for continuing wage cuts, which will in turn keep the economy weak.
To break that vicious circle, we basically need more: more stimulus, more decisive action on the banks, more job creation.
Credit where credit is due; President Barack Obama and his economic advisers seem to have steered the economy away from the abyss. But the risk that America will turn into Japan - that we'll face years of deflation and stagnation - seems, if anything, to be rising. 2009 The New York Times News Service (THE HINDU Tuesday, May, 5 ,2009)
今日の一言

2009年4月21日火曜日

For young Japanese, it's back to the farm (日本の若者が職業として、農業への関心が高まっている!?)

For young Japanese, it's back to the farm (日本の若者の間で職業として、農業への関心が高まっている!?)
A motley group of unlikely farmers descended on the countryside in Yokoshibahikari one recent Sunday, fresh towels around their necks, shiny boots on their feet.
"This is harder than it looks," said Tatsunori Kobayashi, a spiky-haired janitor from Tokyo Disney Resort, as he tromped through a mustard spinach patch with a seed planter, irregular furrows stretehing out behind him.
He is part of Japan's 2,400-strong Rural Labour Squad, urban trainees dispatched to the countryside under a pilot programme to put Japan's underemployed youth to work tilling its firms.
Started last month as part Prime Minister Taro Aso's stimulus plan, the programme stems from growing concern about both the plight of Japan's younger workers and the dismal state of firms. In a play on words, the squad's name in Japanese-Inala-de-hatarakitai-is also its rallying cry: "We want to work in the countryside!" The predicament of Japanese in their 20s and 30s dates back to the lost decade of the 1990s, when many failed to find good, stable work. Today, disproportionate number endure low-wage job - a potential portent for America's students and first-time job seekers plunging into a shallow job market in the United States.
As the Japanese recession has worsened, younger workers have taken the brunt of wage cuts and layoffs, especially in manufacturing. Now the government views the slump - Japanese exports fell almost 50 percent year to year in February - as a chance to divert idel labor to sectors that have long suffered from worker shortages, like agriculture.
Many young Japanese, for their part, have shown a growing interest in farming as disillusionment rises over the grind of city jobs and layoffs. Agricultural job fairs have been swamped with hundreds of applicants: one in Osaka attracted 1,400 people. "Young people want jobs, and farmers need the extra hands," said Isao Muneta, an agriculture ministry official who coordinates the 1.3 billion yen ($13 million) programme, part of a larger stimulus package. " It's the perfect match."
Whether it will save Japan's deteriorating economy is something else. "Rural communities could benefit from an influx of young people,' said Masashi Umemoto at the National agricultural Research Center. "But it's unrealistic to look to agriculture as a solution to the country's unemployment problems."
He added, " There aren't enough farming job." Japanese farming is a picture of inefficiency, and the rural work force is graying. A decline in rice prices has hit farms hard - only the largest farms still turn a profit from harvesting rice, forcing farmers to take on extra jobs. The farms most desperate for workers do not have the means to pay as little as $1,500 a month and are often seasonal. Overgrown plots abound in Yokoshibahikari, a town of 26,000 about 43 miles east of Tokyo. "We're all old folk and thankful to have young people come help us," said Hitoshi Suzuki, 57, and head of a cooperative of family farms that share equipment to reduce overhead costs. (One of the cooperative's famer is 83.)
Rural communuties themselves effectively shut out new blood by making it difficult for outsiders to set up their own farms, says Takayuki Yoshioka, a coordinator at the nonprofit organisation that runs the Yokoshibahikari programme. People with no local farming committees that can take years.
"I believe the possibilities are limitless in agriculture," said Yoshioka, who is interested in starting his own farm. "But there are also big barriers."
Shinji Akimoto, who until recently worked in information technology, is not intimidated.
Fearful of constant staff cuts as business deteriorated, Akimoto, 31, Quit his job last month and days later started training in Yokoshibahikari. His three day, government-financed training programme has been a succession of whirlwind lessons in rice and vegetable planting, cleaning pig sties and feeding cattle. "I had nothing much to lose, and in times like these, I felt I needed to learn to make my own living." he said. He chucked and twirled a finger in the air. "Did you know pigs really do have curly tails?"
Akimoto's team of 10 is a hodgepodge; the Disney janitor, a recently laid-off landscape artist and several collage students. They all get 7,000 yen a day, about $70, and free food and board.
They all shared a common complaint; there was no convenience store nearby drinks and snacks. One trainee persuaded a farmer to lend him his light truck, so he could get cigarettes.
"My friends think I'm crazy for coming here," said Tomoka Inoue ,20, a management major who said she was widening her job search to include farming, "But I think people are becoming more aware of where our food comes from, and I want to get more involved with that. (THE HINDU, FRIDAY, APRIL 17,2009)
今日の一言
農家が楽な仕事と勘違いして、容易に考えてる人が多いのかなぁ? 日本は農業や日本の伝統産業などを大事にしているとは思わない。 成功している農家は、最初から大地主で、お金持ちだ。 利益が上がらない農家が毎年廃業してるのに・・・ 日本の政治家は本当に適当というか・・・その場しのぎの発言が多い。 しかし、良くも悪くも、こうして若者に農業が注目されている今、近い結果を見ず、10年、20年、後を見た、農業発展のプランにしてほしいものだ。
それよりも・・・サラリーマン・・・パワーないなぁ。若者がんばれ。流されるな!

2009年4月16日木曜日

Canon introduces 23 new products (キャノンが23製品を紹介)

Canon introduces 23 new products (キャノンが23製品を紹介)
Plans to enhance channel structure for the digital and camcorder category
NEW DEHLI; Digital imaging company Canon on Thurthday launched 23 state-of-the-art digital cameras and camcorders priced between Rs. 8,995 and Rs. 1 lakh. It also launched its new 'I can with Canon' campaign that aims at empowering its customers. The company is eyeing 25per cent growth in 2009.
While launching the products in Mumbai, Canon India President and CEO Kensaku Konisi said; "Canon has made a conscious effort to bring the best in photographic equipment to continuation of our promise of cutting edge technology for our consumers.
"These are stylish and technologically advanced lifestyle products."
Focus
Canon India Senior Vice-President Alok Bharadwaj said "Despite the slowdown, we are aiming to grow by 25 per cent in the current year. We expect revenues to touch Rs.840 crore in 2009 as compared to Rs.665 crore last year. We are now focusing on consumer products which includes cameras and printers,"
"Canon is continuously creating new features and adding functionalities based on tomorrow's needs. The first revolutionary technology introduced today is the Smart Auto Mode, which uses Canon's intelligent scene detection technology that automatically recognizes 18 different types of scenes including the ability to differentiate between day-time and low-light(night time) scenarios in the new IXUS 100 IS Digital Camera, "Mr. Bharadwaj said.
"We also plan to enhance our channel structure for the digital and camcorder category which now includes over 1000 retailers, and 175 retailers,"he added. (THE HINDU, FRYDAY, APRIL, 10, 2009)
今日の一言
インドは今、カメラ、携帯、車が三種の神器になりつつある。PCなどはインターネットのインフラが遅れているため、携帯がその代用となっている。今後、値段が比較的安いデジタルカメラが普及すると予想できる。

8 new digital cmaeras from Nikon(ニコンが8つの新商品を発表)

8 new digital cmaeras from Nikon(ニコンが8つの新商品を発表)
Company plans to hire around 200 people to strengthen ots sales force
NEW DEHLI;Nikon on Wednesday launched eight ner models of its flagship "Coolpix" brand of digital cameras, priced between Rs.7,450 and Rs.25,950.
"With these new launches, we aim to achive a 10-per cent market share in compact camera and 40 per cent in the SLR(single-lens reflex) camera market," said Nikon India Managing Director Hidehiko Tanaka after launching the new products here.
"We are planning to make our products available through 800 shop-in-shop stores this year. We are present in 100 stores and we are focussing to ezpand our base in Indea,' Mr. Tanaka said.
At present Nikon has five per cent share in the Indian compact camera market of around 10-lakh units, while SLR cameras are around 13,000 units. Nikon is importing cameras from Japan and China. Nikon also plans to hire around 200 people to strenghen its sales force as part of its retail expansion plans in the country. "Our expansion plans include increasing our sales force. We are targeting major cities like Mumbai,Koltaka and Bngalore for expansion," Mr.Tanaka added. Nikon is introducing its "SLR Zone" concept to stores located in other major cities. It has already been launched in Dehli. (THE HINDU ;Saturday, April, 9, 2009)

今日の一言
一眼レンズなんて高いものを買えるインド人はどれだけいるのでしょうか?

2009年4月12日日曜日

Panasonic introduces new range of LCDs and plasme TVs (パナソニックのインド活動)

Panasonic introduces new range of LCDs and plasme TVs (パナソニックのインド活動)
Ropes in actor Ranbir Kapoor as the brand ambassador.
NEW DELIH: Japan- based consumer electronics major Panasonic on Saturday launched its new range of LCD and plasma television and home theatre brands.
Addressing a press conference here, Panasonic India CEO Daizo Ito said their association with Ranbir Kapoor would be instrumental in communicating the trendy yet traditional image of their products such as LCD and plasma TVs.
The company also announced new marketing initiative for its product that includes offering gifts with home theatre.
It also plans to launch new products and expand its dealership network across India.
(THE HINDO April 5 2009)
今日の一言
パナソニックの家電が最近、インドで目立つようになりましたが、CMなどから察するに、今年から本腰を入れそうなので、今後もっと目につくようになるでしょう。 個人的にソニーの次に来るのでは?

North Korea keeps world guessing (北朝鮮ミサイル発射についてパート1)

North Korea keeps world guessing (北朝鮮ミサイル発射についてパート1)
SINGAPORE: North Korea on Saturday kept the world guessing after announcing that a satellite would be launched "soon". Pyongyang's critics suspect that the move might actually be a smokescreen for test-firing an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. A five-day "Time window," beginning Saturday, was earlier set for the proposed "lift-off". And, in line with that, the North Korean state news agency said in the morning that the "preparations" for launching "an experimental communications satellite.... have been completed."
The statement sent neighbouring Japan and South Korea into a state of heightened alert. The U.S., with its "forward military presence" in the region, also intensified efforts to meet an emergency in the event of North Korean failure. Device were already deployed in and around Japan for protection against the possible "debris" of a disintegrating North Korea "missile" in test-flight.
An interlude of monitoring error punctuated the tension. The Japanese government suddenly reported that North Korea appeared to have " launched a projectile." However, the statement was quickly withdrawn. (The HINDO April 5 2009)

今日の一言
インドからまさかこんなん記事を読むとは・・・・日本では北朝鮮はややこしいイメージが強いですが、ここインドではあまりイメージがつかない様で、ニュースにも余りならないのですが、今回はさすがに世界も注目しているみたいですね。 ただ資源に魅力がない北朝鮮には戦争等めんどくさい事には発展しないように思えますが・・・・まぁ平和が一番ですね。
では、パート2で。